Goal: To cluster leaders vs followers in entry to new debt markets




Insight 1: The data show that the dynamics of the most popular markets changed significantly after 2010

  • Did the nature of the market change after 2010, or did the nature of the data collection change?
  • Note to only use post-2010 data for modelling
  • Note that reporting period dates used (some latency)

Insight 2: The data show that the dynamics of less popular markets are consistent before and after 2010


Question 1: Are we interested in identifying leaders issuing debt in new markets with some measure of success?

  • What would constitute success in terms of the financials?
  • Are successful leaders only determined by numbers of followers?
  • Are successful markets indicated by the rate of increase of debt issuances?
  • Do we want to identify leaders who venture successfully into new markets (rate of success)?
  • Is currency the only available market identifier? (EUR - Greece is quite different from EUR-Germany)

Question 2: Timelines and risk profiles?

  • Is reporting period too coarse a time frame?
  • Would target 'follower' customers like to venture into new markets weeks, months or years after leaders?
  • Is there a time period where followers would like to see some excellent performance by leaders before jumping into new markets?
  • Do followers and leader have different risk profiles and should this be part of the modelling?


  • Very interesting data

  • Some initial insights and views of the data found

  • Wary of black box modelling approaches

  • Need more understanding of the debt market landscape before modelling

Import libraries and initialise plotly

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Exploring market entry points with debt_balance

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Find all the rows where reporting age is 1 as we are interested in earliest market entry points

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5 most popular markets

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Interestingly many of the median popularity markets do not exhibit the pre and post 2010 split in popularity dynamics that is evident in the more popular markets

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Lots of one hit (flop?) wonders in the debt market space

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Upper quartile of popular markets show split in dynamics pre and post 2010

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Enter any currency market to view trajectory e.g. EUR, AUD, USD, SYP

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Use Debt_balance to filter the other files


filter large financial data files to extract only the rows relating to companies with debt issuances


Viewing files

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